Maritime Corridor Intensity and Trade Diversification: A Gravity-Based Assessment of Albania’s Strategic Maritime Partners

Abstract

The aim of this paper is to determine the factors that affect Albania’s trade flows with partner countries by considering the gravity model for bilateral trade as suggested by Anderson & van Wincoop, 2003. The analysis uses panel data for 67 countries for a period of 10 years from 2015 to 2024. The dependent variable is the natural logarithm of Albania’s trade flows with trading partners, and the explanatory variables include the logarithm of Albania’s GDP, the logarithm of the partner’s GDP and the logarithm of the Albania partner distance. The study employs a log-log gravity model estimated using Ordinary Least Squares (OLS), allowing coefficients to be interpreted as elasticities. Two specifications are used a full model and a reduced model addressing multicollinearity and the model validity is assessed through t-tests, F-tests, and collinearity diagnostics. this study provides clear evidence that Albania’s trade structure is in line with the fundamental principles of the gravity model: economic size attracts trade, while distance inhibits it. In a context where Albania is transforming its port infrastructure and increasing regional integration, the results of this paper provide a solid analytical basis for designing trade policies and strategic investments in the transport and logistics sector. The paper contributes to the orientation of trade policy priorities towards markets with higher potential and investments that reduce transport costs and trade barriers.

Received: 20 February 2026  │  Accepted: 10 June 2026  │  Published: 23 July 2026